Predictions for the Future of Organic Search & SEO
If I had a dollar for every “SEO is dead” post I’ve seen on Reddit, I’d be a rich man. The space is undergoing some dramatic changes—but even more dramatic are some of the SEO professionals who are regretting their career choices (let the record show that as of 2024, I am not one of them).
In the wake of a huge year for artificial intelligence, people aren’t sure what to make of the Organic Search channel. Businesses may be questioning whether SEO will continue to be a worthwhile investment. There are both some valid concerns and some overreactions here.
After consuming other peoples’ opinions and ideas for some time, I thought I’d try my hand at articulating some of my own. In this article, I cover:
2 Major Threats to the SEO Space
What do people actually mean when they say SEO is dead or that the future looks grim? Typically, this is a commentary on one of two things:
The way Google is rewarding or punishing websites in search results—which impacts both content publishers and content consumers.
The explosion of Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT, which offer new, better ways to consume information.
ln 2024, many publishers are frustrated that SEO is generating worse ROI than in years prior. This is the result of sites being shown less in search results and/or people simply using Google less for their search needs.
On the other side of the screen, content consumers may also be frustrated by the state of SEO, complaining about the degrading quality of Google’s search results. A commonly meme’d example here is when you’re looking for a simple cooking recipe and you have to scroll through a bunch of SEO fluff to actually get to the recipe.
Threat #1: Google losing itself
Most SEOs will tell you this is already happening. Between September’s Helpful Content Update and the latest core update in March, thousands of sites have been hit hard. I’m not as critical of these algorithm updates, as I believe Google is well-intentioned, and my own sites have mostly weathered the storm. I attribute that to a few things:
I don’t publish AI-written spam content
I don’t use Display ads that degrade user experience
I don’t use affiliate links
My content is SEO strategic, but it aims to be genuinely helpful for my ICPs and target audiences. As a result, I’ve had success generating traffic over time. That said, Google constantly makes missteps and the quality of search results has been hit or miss in recent months. Additionally, publishers may not like that Google increasingly tries to answer search queries directly on the SERP, disincentivizing click-through to individual sites.
If you’re like me as a Google user, you might find yourself appending “reddit” to a lot of your searches because you’d rather read a user-generated content forum as opposed to an overly optimized SEO article. This user behavior—using Google as a proxy to navigate Reddit content—is proof that Google’s own results fall short at times.
Threat #2: Google losing market share
Just as commonly, SEOs point to generative AI—LLMs like ChatGPT and Perplexity—to make the case that SEO is dying. There’s a lot of valid concern to unpack here. Reflecting on my own search behavior, I’ve already started developing a muscle for when something is a Google search vs. a ChatGPT session (I get enough value to pay the $20/month for GPT4).
This shift is very much underway for early adopters of AI tools. Many of us have experienced moments where ChatGPT proved to be more useful than a Google search. The extent to which AI “kills” Google, as some think it will, remains to be seen. However, most can agree that Google will likely lose a sizable number of searches to these new tools.
Predictions for the Future of the Space
Five years ago, only a sliver of the SEO world could’ve predicted the magnitude of the shifts we are seeing in 2024. Predicting what happens next is anyone’s guess. But it’s fun, so here’s what I’m predicting.
Prediction #1: The “absolutes” will not come to fruition.
Bold predictions that “SEO is dead” and “AI will take down Google” will not pan out. We have a tendency to get wrapped up in the most dramatic headlines. But as hype cycles come and go, we’ll find ourselves somewhere in the middle. SEO won’t die, but it will evolve as it always has. AI won’t take down Google, but it will steal some market share. The most likely outcome is that LLMs and traditional search engines coexist, being used at different times for different things.
Prediction #2: User behavior will evolve slower than people think.
The AI explosion has raised eyebrows for its rapid disruption. But changing human behavior is a different story, and I don’t expect that to evolve nearly as quickly. We are conditioned by 25 years of going to Google for our information. Breaking that pattern entirely in favor of new solutions will never happen for many. For most, if it happens, I expect it to take 5-10 years. For those of us who are already changing our search behavior today, we are early adopters who are still figuring out how to balance usage of Google vs. AI.
Prediction #3: Google will lose on innovation, but it doesn’t need to win.
It’s no secret that Google is playing catch-up to the OpenAI’s of the world. Most recently, Google’s Gemini was seemingly rushed to market and exposed overnight for its inability to generate images of white people.
The brightest minds in tech are migrating to the true AI disruptors that are setting the pace for innovation. Google’s attempts to go blow-for-blow have mostly failed and shown that the company’s leadership is sweating. But here’s the question people aren’t asking: Does Google need to win?
I’d argue that they don’t. According to Semrush, Google owns 92% of search engine market share globally and processes 8.5 billion searches per day. Google can afford to remain a step behind on innovation for years to come, if nothing else, because its lead is so massive. This makes for a more bullish case than Google gets credit for in today’s SEO climate.
Prediction #4: SEO will continue returning value for brands in particular.
Brands are uniquely positioned to continue seeing value from SEO. First, most company websites don’t rely on affiliate links or display ads for revenue—both of which have become some of the fastest ways to lose favor with Google’s algorithm.
Second, many brands with some initial traction are well positioned to generate press from trusted publications, creating high-value backlinks (for example, a startup raises its Series A and is featured in TechCrunch as a result). These brands often have the budget to develop small marketing teams that can focus on real value creation for Google searchers—and they’ll continue to be rewarded for it.
And third, I expect high-intent searches to remain on Google. When a buyer is looking for the right product or service, they want to feel in control of their search, exploring different sites to reach their decision. AI may serve as a helpful resource in this process alongside Google, but it won’t replace it.
Prediction #5: Diversification will remain a winning strategy.
SEOs talk a lot about the importance of “diversifying your traffic sources.” This is nothing new. Over-reliance on Google will always be a high-risk strategy. For marketers, this means finding ways to drive traffic from social, paid, webinars, email, live events, etc.
A lesser talked about diversification topic is diversifying your content use cases, too. This is an art-form in itself. For example, where are the opportunities to simultaneously optimize an article for SEO and for sales collateral? Or an article that can be chopped up into a dozen engaging tweets? Great content can do both. Carving out budget and man hours to develop multi-use content is more easily justified because you’re getting mileage in multiple places.
Could this be Google’s “2010 Facebook moment”?
I’m fascinated by the possibility that history is repeating, and we’ve actually seen a version of this play out in the early 2010s with Facebook.
From 2004-2010, Facebook had a foothold on the social media space. Millennials remember the early days of Facebook, when it was the clear market leader (for any Gen Zs reading this, yes, Facebook was very cool at one point). But come 2010, the space evolved rapidly.
Pinterest launched in 2009.
Instagram launched in 2010.
Snapchat launched in 2011.
Suddenly, social media users had options. In the pursuing years, Social evolved as a shared space—each platform experiencing massive growth, none of them really “dethroning” one another. Consumers created “Social Media” folders on their smartphones and developed unique preferences for when, how, and why they used each app.
Is Search headed in the same direction? It might be. I can see a future where we all have “Search” folders on our phones that feature 2-3 apps. How and when a user decides to use those apps will be completely unique.
Why there’s more shock value this time
Google’s monopolistic reign as the king of Search started at the turn of the century and has never truly been challenged. Other search engines like Bing and DuckDuckGo have earned small amounts of market share, but they largely do the same thing (often doing it worse), which leaves little reason for Google users to go elsewhere.
LLMs represent the first innovation that threatens the traditional ways in which we seek and collect information on the web via search behavior. The shock value has been amplified by a couple things:
LLMs are incredibly good—in many cases, they are simply more helpful than Google.
Compared to Social, it has taken so much longer for Search to be shaken up by new entrants.
So, for the first time, we are being forced to think for a brief second about how we want to get our information online. Historically, there was no decision to be made. You’d open Safari on your iPhone or Chrome on your laptop and let Google guide you on your web search. AI chats are quickly becoming the first second-option that we consider at the beginning of this process.
Why the Social-Search analogy holds up
Analogizing Search and Social isn’t perfect, but I think the comparison holds up over time. Both spaces are so massive, with such wide user bases, that they can support the success and growth of multiple winners. Both spaces now have competitive landscapes that drive innovation and give consumers freedom of choice.
What’s most interesting to me about this analogy is the “muscle” that we all need to develop for Search. Think about yourself at the end of a workday, settling in on the couch to scroll through your social media feed of choice. There’s a very brief moment there where you think about what you want…
For mind-numbing videos, TikTok.
For what happened today, Twitter.
For some slightly more mentally stimulating content, Reddit.
Those of us who use social media are constantly making that split-second decision. How does that decision evolve as we engage in this new world of Search? Will we run each individual search use-case through a rapid mental exercise?
For cooking recipes, ChatGPT.
For exploring business solutions, Google.
For remembering that word on the tip of your tongue, ChatGPT.
For searches with local intent, Google.
For a quick explainer of a current event, ChatGPT.
For online shopping, Google.
I’m still developing this muscle myself, and I can’t say I have a go-to framework yet. Even as an early adopter of AI tools, I anticipate this muscle will take years to fully develop.
Recommendations for SEOs Going Forward
Whether my predictions pan out remains to be seen. But I think we know enough about how the SEO space is trending to make some informed decisions. Here’s what I’d recommend to other SEOs who may feel unsure about the future.
1. High-quality, useful content is still worth developing
Content that follows the E-E-A-T framework is still worth creating (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, and Trustworthiness). Don’t overcomplicate the process. Sites will continue to see SEO value if they comply and stay updated on what Google wants. This also means using AI sparingly to produce content and always editing with your own style and voice.
Also worth noting—LLMs pull content from the internet. In some cases they provide sources (ChatGPT started doing this just last week), prompting users to click through to the original source. This is another reason content is still a worthwhile investment.
2. Follow the space closer
Top SEOs are actively discussing what works and doesn’t work. And it changes fast, especially in months where Google is mixing things up with its ranking algorithm. Follow SEO thought leaders like Lily Ray and Barry Schwartz on Twitter to stay in the know (pro tip: Create a Twitter list dedicated to SEO accounts so you can always check a curated feed).
3. Watch your data, but not too closely
I check my website numbers everyday. I probably shouldn’t. I’ve had multiple moments of thinking Google dinged my site, only for my traffic to rebound a couple days later. If you are doing a great job with recommendation #1 above, then consistency is most important until you have real reason to believe a shift in strategy may be needed. SEO results compound over long periods of time.
4. Monetize with taste
The loudest voices complaining about Google are the webmasters of sites that generated tons of revenue from monetization strategies that are losing favor. If your site is littered with display ads and affiliate links, anticipate that you’ll eventually get dinged. Try to get more creative—for example, are there ways you can build native ads that integrate more naturally on your site?
5. Diversify your marketing mix
To close it out and to build on prediction #5, think about how you’d fare if your site lost all of its organic traffic. Do you have other sources of traffic? An email list? A LinkedIn presence? Sure, these second-hand solutions may not build as quickly as SEO, but they deserve a place in your marketing mix no matter how the future of Organic Search plays out.
